Shafaq News
US President Donald Trump’s repeated decisions to postponestrikes on Iran at the request of parties involved in the conflict no longercome as a surprise. After each delay, negotiations between Washington andTehran regain momentum, yet the two sides have still failed to reach anagreement.
Trump’s latest decision to suspend a planned strike on Iran,following appeals from the leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United ArabEmirates, has fueled questions over the reasons behind the US reversal. Politicalobservers interviewed by Shafaq News say the move reflects the convergence ofthree key factors: accelerating diplomatic contacts, Gulf pressure, and theeconomic and military cost of any open confrontation in the region.
At the same time, Pakistan-backed regional mediation effortscontinue to shuttle proposals between the two sides. The mediation hasincreasingly shifted from seeking to end the war to preventing its return, asboth Washington and Tehran continue to reject each other’s conditions whileescalating their demands. Islamabad conveyed a new 14-point Iranian proposal toWashington focused on ending the war, lifting sanctions, and reopening theStrait of Hormuz, while deferring more sensitive issues, including uraniumenrichment, to later stages of negotiations.
The proposal coincided with reports of partial USflexibility toward allowing Iran to maintain a limited civilian nuclear programunder International Atomic Energy Agency supervision, in exchange for reducingenrichment levels and transferring part of its stockpile of highly enricheduranium.
Despite these developments, major disputes remainunresolved, particularly over Iran’s right to enrichment, the mechanism forlifting sanctions, security guarantees, and the future of the US militarypresence in the region. Washington continues to insist on a central demand: nouranium enrichment inside Iran.
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Crisis of Trust
Researcher on Iranian affairs Saleh Al-Qazwini said theroots of the dispute between Tehran and Washington lie in years of accumulatedmistrust.
“The Islamic Republic does not trust the United Statesbecause of a long history of violating agreements and failing to honorcommitments,” he told Shafaq News, stressing that Iran’s distrust does not meanabandoning negotiations.
“On the contrary, Tehran is keen to present itself as astate committed to political solutions, even if negotiations fail to producetangible outcomes.”
Al-Qazwini noted that Iran pursues a “balanced deterrencepolicy,” and that “Tehran’s hand remains on the trigger, but at the same timeit is serious about negotiations.”
According to the researcher, Iran places little confidencein US guarantees, viewing its immediate priority as “ending the war andaggression before moving to other issues, including the nuclear file.”
Meanwhile, Iran continues to insist that ending the conflictacross all fronts in the region is a prerequisite for negotiations on othermatters, including its nuclear program.
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Cost of War
The push toward de-escalation is shaped by increasinglydifficult economic calculations inside the United States, particularly withrising energy prices and fears that the conflict could spread across the Gulfand disrupt the Strait of Hormuz.
Jordanian political science professor Hazem Ayad saideconomic considerations have become a decisive factor in the USadministration’s decision to preserve the negotiation track.
“US markets have shown panic and alarm over therepercussions of the war,” Ayad told Shafaq News, pointing out that persistentconcerns over inflation and the difficulty of lowering interest rates while theconflict continues have all pushed Washington to favor the diplomatic path.” Heargued that the United States has failed to isolate Iran from China, warningthat any open confrontation could evolve into “a prolonged war of attritionbacked by international powers,” reducing the likelihood of entering alarge-scale direct conflict.
Ayad concluded that negotiations, even without abreakthrough, remain the “preferred option” for all parties, particularly giventhe difficulty of making painful concessions at this stage. “Israeli pressurecontinues to heavily influence the American decision,” the academic said, andthat Israel views the conflict as “an existential issue tied to its deterrence capabilityand preserving its regional position.”
Israel continues its military campaign in Lebanon despitethe announcement of a ceasefire. While Israel says it retains freedom ofmovement to respond to Hezbollah violations under the agreement reached withthe Lebanese state under US sponsorship, Tehran insists, according tostatements by its officials, that ending the war in Lebanon is a core conditionin any agreement.
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Negotiations at a Standstill
Essam Al-Faili, professor of political science atAl-Mustansiriya University, said the high cost of war remains the main factorsustaining negotiations, describing it as a genuine barrier against thecollapse of talks.
Al-Faili told Shafaq News that the mysterious militaryoperations and explosions witnessed across the region in recent hours,including at sites linked to missiles and strategic weapons inside Israel,“have exposed the scale of risks associated with any broad escalation.”
These developments prompted Washington to delay its responseto the latest 14-point Iranian initiative, noting that the US administrationhas so far limited itself to media leaks suggesting the Iranian proposalsremain insufficient.
The continuation of communication channels between the twosides, alongside regional diplomatic activity, indicates that negotiationsremain on the table as the logical alternative to war, he added, warning that“the negotiations remain fragile and vulnerable to collapse if Washingtonconcludes that military action could achieve decisive results.”
The talks, al-Faili explained, are currently stuck in aphase of stalemate and indirect messaging, but still represent the preferredoption “compared to an open-ended war with no horizon.”
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Written and Edited by Shafaq News Staff.
