Shafaq News
As Syria moves into a new phasemarked by ceasefire agreements and the reassertion of Damascus’ authority overareas previously controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), securityconcerns are intensifying next door in Iraq. The central one is whether Syria’sfragile transition could generate new, less visible threats for Iraq,particularly along one of the region’s longest and most sensitive frontiers.
Iraq shares a 618-kilometer borderwith Syria, nearly half of which —around 285 kilometers— runs through Ninevehprovince, an area shaped by rugged terrain, overlapping security jurisdictions,and a long history of infiltration by ISIS. While Iraqi authorities insist theborder is secure, analysts interviewed by Shafaq News warn that the evolvingsituation inside Syria could test those defenses in ways that walls and camerasalone cannot fully contain.
A Border Secured, But Not Sealed
Security expert Mukhallad al-Darbcautions against viewing border control in absolute terms. “There is no suchthing as complete security in any country, especially when it comes toborders,” he says, stressing that border protection depends on constant coordinationand intelligence-sharing rather than physical measures alone.
Al-Darb notes that Iraq hassignificantly reinforced its frontier with Syria through three human andlogistical defensive belts, supported by trenches, barbed wire, thermalcameras, and the deployment of border guards and armored units. These measures,he says, have brought the border close to full control.
Yet he also points to “soft spots,”particularly near Sinjar Mountain and Faysh Khabur, areas administered by theKurdistan Region where federal forces are not fully deployed. “These zonescould still be exploited for infiltration attempts,” he warns, emphasizing thatthe challenge is not geography alone, but how authority is exercised across it.
According to al-Darb, Iraqi forcesremain on high alert, with continued troop reinforcements along the border andongoing security coordination with Damascus aimed at preventing anydeterioration that could affect Iraq’s internal stability.
The Prison File: A Risk Beyond theBorder
While border defenses dominateofficial narratives, political analyst Saif al-Saadi argues that the realdanger lies deeper inside Syrian territory, within the detention facilitiesholding thousands of ISIS fighters.
“Iraq’s security is directlyaffected by what happens in Syria,” al-Saadi says, noting that Iraq’s longwestern border makes proactive measures unavoidable. However, he stresses thatthe most serious threat is not infiltration, but the fate of ISIS detainees.
According to the US StateDepartment, there are almost 9,000 ISIS fighters held in prisons acrossnortheastern Syria, including facilities in Hasakah, Qamishli, Raqqa, and thenotorious Ghuwayran prison, which alone previously housed around 12,000 inmates. Many of these detainees are foreign fighters from more than 40 countries, mostof which have refused to repatriate their nationals.
Al-Saadi warns that this situationrecalls Iraq’s own experience with displacement and detention facilities after2017, including the Jadaa and Al-Amal camps in Mosul, which posed long-termsecurity and social challenges. “These detainees represent a ticking timebomb,” he says, calling for stricter measures, enhanced intelligencecooperation, and closer coordination with Washington to prevent ISIS fromexploiting any instability.
Political Transitions, SecurityConsequences
Security analyst Saif Raad Talibviews Iraqi concerns as both logical and unavoidable, given Syria’s changingpolitical landscape. Linking recent developments to what he described as aTurkish-backed shift in Syria, including decisions that effectively ended therole of the SDF insome areas, Talib identifies Nineveh as Iraq’s primary zone of concern, and its285-kilometer border segment as a “critical frontier” vulnerable toinfiltration due to its terrain and fragmented control. He also warns aboutclashes near detention sites such as al-Aqtan prison in Raqqa, which holds ISIS members.
Beyond the prisons, Talibhighlighted the broader ecosystem surrounding them. An estimated 55,000 to60,000 people, mostly women and children linked to ISIS fighters, remain housedin Al-Hol camp, located near Iraq’s border with Nineveh. “This environmentcontinues to produce extremist narratives and future security risks,” he says.
Talib contrasts this with thesituation in the western province of Al-Anbar, where the border is reinforcedby a concrete wall —now nearing completion— thermal surveillance systems,drones, and three fixed military defense lines, making infiltration there“almost impossible.” By contrast, he argues, parts of Nineveh’s border remaindivided between federal authorities, the Kurdistan Region, and areas influencedby the Kurdistan Workers'Party (PKK), calling for targeted reinforcement in those zones.
Political Warnings from Baghdad
Concerns are not limited to securityexperts. Mohammed al-Baldawi, a lawmaker from the Sadiqoon parliamentary bloc,the political wing of Asaib Ahl Al-Haq, voices alarm over “unhealthy regionaldynamics” unfolding amid multiple ongoing conflicts.
Al-Baldawi warns that clashesbetween Syrian government forces and the SDF, combined with reports of prisonopenings and the release of ISIS-linked detainees, “pose a direct threat toIraq’s security and demand heightened vigilance.”
Official Reassurance—and StrategicCaution
Balancing these warnings, Sabahal-Numan, spokesperson for the Iraqi commander-in-chief, insisted that theIraq–Syria border is fully secured by the Border Guard Command. He describesborder security as a top government priority, particularly in relation toneighboring Syria.
“Construction of the concrete borderwall is approximately 80 percent complete, with plans to extend it along theentire frontier,” Al-Numan explains, citing also sufficient manpower, advancedtechnical and logistical systems, fixed defense lines operated by the army andPopular Mobilization Forces (PMF),and round-the-clock aerial surveillance, and high-level coordination withKurdistan Region border guards.
“Stability in Syria remains acritical factor for Iraq’s own security and for regional balance more broadly.”
Between Assurance and Uncertainty
Recent announcements by the PMFregarding the reinforcement of the 10th and 25th brigades along the border,warnings by leader Muqtada al-Sadr against dealing with Syrian developments“naively,” and Global Coalition and Turkish activity in Mosul, the capital ofNineveh, over less than 24 hours, reflect a broader recognition in Baghdad: thethreat has not disappeared—it has evolved.
In this environment, security forIraq is more about managing uncertainty: detention facilities, fragmentedauthority, foreign fighter limbo, and the long shadow of ISIS networks thatthrive in gray zones rather than open battlefields.
The challenge for Iraq, analystsagree, is ensuring that the end of Syria’s battles does not become the preludeto a quieter, more unpredictable security test at its western gate.
Writtenand edited by Shafaq News staff.
