Shafaq News
Displacement dynamics in Iraq are undergoing a structuralshift, as war-driven migration steadily recedes while environmental stress,especially escalating water scarcity, is becoming a long-term driver ofpopulation movement. Despite official claims of declining irregular migrationand ongoing returns from displacement camps and abroad, climate pressures andupstream water politics are reshaping internal mobility patterns across thecountry.
The End of Conflict-Driven Displacement
Over the past years, Iraq’s displacement landscape wasdominated by war and its aftermath, particularly the rise and territorialdefeat of ISIS between 2014 and 2017. Large-scale internal displacement,cross-border asylum flows, and irregular migration routes defined the movementof Iraqis seeking safety and economic stability.
By the time ISIS was defeated in 2017, the UNDP estimatedthe scale of destruction at around $80 billion, with nearly 11 million peopledependent on humanitarian assistance and more than six million forced intodisplacement. While over one million Iraqis remain internally displaced today,that legacy is gradually receding.
The Ministry of Migration and Displacement says Iraq isexperiencing a “clear transformation” in migration patterns, marked bydeclining irregular departures and sustained returns of internally displacedpersons, alongside voluntary repatriation from Europe and neighboringcountries, particularly Turkiye.
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That pattern is also immediate in the government's effortsto close one of the conflict's last unresolved chapters. More than 15,000individuals have returned through rehabilitation and reintegration programs,including Iraqis and their families repatriated from the al-Hol camp in Syriavia the al-Jadaa rehabilitation center in Nineveh in coordination with theIraqi government and the US-led Coalition. However, sensitive files such asJurf al-Sakhar in Babil remain subject to ongoing security vetting.
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Kareem Al-Nouri, Deputy Minister of Migration andDisplacement, said Iraq’s irregular migration wave through routes “such asBelarus, Turkiye, and Libya has decreased by more than half compared toprevious years,” particularly among migrants originating from the KurdistanRegion toward Europe.
He attributed this to tighter regional cooperation, EUengagement, and the disruption of smuggling networks, noting that reintegrationprograms and legal constraints in destination countries, including around30,000 rejected asylum applications for Iraqis in Germany, have reducedincentives for new departures.
The decline in irregular migration is also linked to thecollapse of key transit routes that previously functioned as “pressure valves”for Iraqi youth seeking entry into Europe. The Belarus route, which peaked in2020–2021, has effectively been shut down, while enforcement along Turkiye’swestern corridors and Libya’s Mediterranean departure points has furtherrestricted smuggling networks.
When Water Replaces War
Yet while conflict-related migration is gradually subsiding,Iraqi officials acknowledge that another driver has already begun to emerge.
Al-Nouri confirmed that Iraq has already experiencedclimate-related displacement in southern provinces affected by drought anddesertification, including Dhi Qar, Maysan, Basra, Al-Muthanna, andAl-Diwaniyah. A 2025 estimate by the International Organization for Migration(IOM) recorded around 168,000 cases of displacement linked directly toenvironmental degradation.
Jassim Al-Asadi, head of the Iraq Nature Group in Chibayish,described the country’s water situation as “complex and dual,” with sharpregional disparities. While some areas have seen temporary improvements inwater availability, others along the Tigris continue to suffer acute shortages.
He noted in an interview with Shafaq News that Iraq’s waterreserves rose from 4.7 billion cubic meters last year to more than 31 billioncubic meters currently, but “this recovery remains highly fragile.”
“A single dry season could reverse these gains,” he warned,pointing out that projections suggest reserves may fall to around 15 billioncubic meters next year after agricultural consumption, increasing pressure onfarming communities and accelerating internal migration.
For Al-Asadi, the consequences are already evident beyondreservoir levels.
Environmental degradation continues across the centralmarshes despite temporary improvements in water availability. Communities aregradually moving toward permanent water sources and nearby cities, particularlyfrom rural areas in Dhi Qar.
"Farmers who inherited this profession from theirancestors are now powerless against cracked fields and dry wells. Many have nochoice but to leave their land and look for work in cities that are alreadystruggling with overcrowding."
According to the Green Iraq Observatory, the country isreceiving only a fraction of its historical water share, while reservoirs inTurkiye now hold nearly 80 billion cubic meters —around eight times the storagecapacity of Mosul Dam. Over the past four decades, Turkiye has built about 20dams on the Tigris and Euphrates, reducing downstream flows to Iraq. Today,Iraq receives only around 35% of its required water allocation, with the Tigrissupplying roughly 200 cubic meters per second against a demand of 450, whilethe Euphrates provides just 151 cubic meters per second compared with the 350required.
Iran has also reshaped the hydrology of Iraq's southernfrontier. The Karkheh Dam, completed in 2001, created a reservoir approachingsix billion cubic meters, reducing water reaching Iraq's marshes. A series ofdams on the Karun River has further diminished flows into the Shatt al-Arab,worsening salinity and deepening water stress in Basra.
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If current water conditions persist, Iraq may face a newwave of climate-driven mobility, less dramatic than wartime displacement, butmore widespread and difficult to reverse.
Iraq's Next Migration Challenge
The easing of conflict-related displacement marks animportant milestone in Iraq's recovery, but it does not signal the end ofmigration pressures.
Instead, they are becoming slower, more structural, andincreasingly tied to water security rather than armed conflict.
If current shifts continue, Iraq may face a new phase ofclimate-driven mobility —less dramatic than the mass displacement drove byISIS, but potentially broader, longer-lasting, and far more difficult toreverse.
Written and edited by Shafaq News staff.
