Shafaq News- Baghdad

Iraq is considering withdrawing fromOPEC if the organization rejects the country's push to raise its oil productionquota in line with those of some other member states, government sources toldShafaq News on Wednesday.

The sources said the proposal formspart of a broader plan to increase oil exports and compensate for lossesincurred during the recent war. Baghdad is also assessing the potential impactof exceeding OPEC's production ceiling, including the effect that higher globalcrude supply could have on oil prices.

“Any decision to increase productionor withdraw from OPEC would likely come after Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi'splanned visit to Washington in the middle of next month,” they added.

Background

Iraq isOPEC's second-largest crude producer and one of the most oil-dependenteconomies in the world, with crude sales funding roughly 90 percent of staterevenue. That reliance leaves Baghdad acutely exposed to any disruption in itsexport routes, above all the Strait of Hormuz.

Thecountry ships the overwhelming majority of its oil by sea rather than bypipeline, with roughly 93 to 95 percent passing through Hormuz, a corridor thathas remained almost entirely closed since the US-Israel-Iran conflict began inFebruary 2026.

Iraq'soutput is governed by OPEC, which sets production ceilings for its members tomanage global supply and prices. Baghdad has frequently pumped above itsassigned ceiling and has been required to submit "compensation" plansto offset the excess, a pattern it shares with Kazakhstan. It has also arguedconsistently that its current quota fails to reflect the expansion of itsproduction capacity in recent years, the core grievance now driving talk ofbreaking the ceiling outright.

Theseconverging pressures shape the proposal described by the sources: the need torecover revenue lost during the export shutdown, and a market now carryingample supply, which depresses the price Iraq earns per barrel. Exiting OPECwould remove the ceiling altogether, giving Baghdad the freedom to pump andsell at will, though such a step would be rare.

Angolaleft the group in early 2024 over a similar quota dispute, Qatar withdrew in2019, Ecuador in 2020, Indonesia in 2016, and the UAE in 2026.

: No exit but Hormuz: Iraq's economic vulnerabilityexposed