'Vulnerability exposed': War on Iran will change how the US bases troops in Gulf
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Sean Mathews
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Mon, 06/08/2026 - 15:48
Iran wants US to abandon its military bases in Gulf, yet the reality of drone warfare and military limits means US might have to downsize anyway
A general view shows US Air Force C-17 Globemaster aircraft at al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar (AFP/File photo)
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In 2022, the US constructed a military base near Yanbu, on Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea coast. Activity at the base surged during the US-Israeli war on Iran, as Iranian missiles and drones slammed into US bases closer to the Islamic Republic’s shores, current and former US officials tell Middle East Eye.
“The whole point of LSA Jenkins is to support the Iran strategy by providing strategic depth beyond the immediate proximity of Iran’s shores,” Abbas Dahouk, a former US defence and army attache to Saudi Arabia, told Middle East Eye, using the acronym for the Logistical Support Area Jenkins base.
Iran is demanding the closure of US military bases in the region as part of any longterm ceasefire. While the US is unlikely to meet that demand, the effectiveness of Iranian missiles and drones targeting US bases, with the help of Chinese and Russian satellites, is raising questions about the future of big, bulky US bases in the Gulf, US officials and analysts familiar with the matter told MEE.
In sum, the US may not even want to return to some of the very bases that Iran is demanding the US exit.
“The truth is that we are not as inclined to occupy these bases now that we have seen what the Iranians can throw at them,” David Petraeus, a former director of the CIA and head of all US military forces in the Middle East, told Bloomberg in May. “This is much more than when I was commander at Central Command.”
“I can assure you that Central Commander did not do what his predecessors have always done - which is be in the same time zone with all of your forces…he stayed…outside Tampa, [Florida], that’s where the war has been run from,” he added.
The US’s bases are big, fixed targets. Their vulnerability in an age of missile and drone warfare was underscored again last week when the fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran came under pressure, and fresh fighting erupted.
In response to US attacks, Iran launched strikes on Kuwait. US Central Command said it intercepted all the ballistic missiles Iran fired at its bases, but satellite imagery released by Soar Atlas showed a destroyed shelter at the Ali al-Salem Air Base. A terminal at Kuwait International Airport also suffered extensive damage, which Iran blamed on a US Patriot missile gone awry.
The US’s hold on bases in Kuwait is effectively untenable, current and former US officials have told MEE.
Is the era of big US bases over?
“The war has exposed the vulnerability of all fixed bases,” Mark Cancian, a senior military expert at the Center for International and Strategic Studies, told MEE.
“The US is reevaluating its posture in the Middle East, and there’s likely to be changes. I wouldn’t be surprised if these bases were reduced in scope,” he added.
Two US officials and an analyst who spoke to MEE on the condition of anonymity said the US’s future military presence in the Middle East may look more like LSA Jenkins, with smaller bases further away from Iran that are less of a sitting target.
The US has different kinds of basing agreements with Gulf states.
In Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar, US troops are effectively stationed there full-time. Oman has no US bases but does have an agreement granting the US access to ports and airspace, which must be negotiated in advance.
Oman has been one of the least attacked Gulf states amid the US-Israeli war on Iran.
Around 2,700 American troops are stationed in Saudi Arabia, but two decades ago, the country was home to double that number. In 2003, the US transitioned from the fixed-base system it had with Kuwait to one built on access and training.
“It sounds like semantics, but the type of agreement does make a difference for the US and host country. The Gulf states are very sensitive to the language they use on how US troops are hosted. And it leaves the US presence more nimble,” a US defence expert who consults with the US military told MEE, speaking on condition of anonymity.
“This war will force a light footprint approach like Oman that prioritises access,” the expert said.
Can the US 'harden' its bases?
Home to around 14,000 troops, Kuwait hosts more US soldiers than any other country in the Middle East. It is home to two large bases - Camp Arifjan and Ali al-Salem Air Base - both of which have come under intense attack from Iran.
Patriot missile launchers at Ali al-Salem Air Base, 50 miles north of Kuwait City, on 17 December 1998 (AFP)
The US military only entrenched itself in Kuwait in the 1990s, after Saddam Hussein’s invasion. During the Ottoman era, Kuwait was part of a province that included Basra, Iraq. Kuwait’s geography at the hook of the Gulf made it especially vulnerable to missile and drone attacks from both Iran and Iraqi militias during the war.
Instead of trying to defend those assets, the US evacuated them.
The US’s limited stockpile of air defence interceptors was evident in the first weeks of the Iran war. MEE revealed that the Gulf states were stonewalled when they asked for fresh interceptors. The Washington Post reported in May that the US has just 200 Terminal High Altitude Area Defence interceptors left.
“Defending all of these bases would stretch US interceptors,” Dahouk told MEE. “The US had to make a choice between hardening the bases and risking lives or evacuating. We evacuated.”
Douglas Silliman, the former US ambassador to Kuwait, told MEE that if the US decided to double down on its bases in the Gulf, it would require more military commitments.
“Many US military facilities in Kuwait are not as hardened as some other US facilities in the region. If the US and Kuwait would like to keep a significant US presence after the Iran war - and I think it's likely that both sides will want to - they will have to invest in hardening those facilities,” he said.
An alternative to Jebel Ali
Iran forced the US away from the Gulf coast in the early days of the war. MEE was the first to report that the US gained access to Taif Air Base in Saudi Arabia in March after Iran pummelled Prince Sultan Air Base, southeast of Riyadh.
Further to the east, the Gulf coast is dotted with US military bases. Bahrain is home to the US’s Fifth Fleet. Qatar hosts US Central Command’s headquarters. And the UAE is home to Al Dhafra Air Base. The US Navy also calls at Jebel Ali Port. Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz has made the waterway a no-go zone for the US Navy.
Dahouk, the former US defence attache, told MEE that Iran’s chokehold has posed a sustainment problem for the US Navy.
“Jebel Ali is one of the most frequently visited overseas ports for US naval vessels,” he said.
Ironically, in 2015, Dahouk recalls that Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, then defence minister, offered the US port call access to Jizan on the Red Sea. The offer was seriously considered at the time, he said.
“An additional port call option without having to transit through the Persian Gulf would reduce reliance on Jebel Ali Port,” Dahouk added.
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