Shafaq News
After years of drought described as the worst in more than nine decades,the Euphrates River is bringing Iraq something it has not seen in a long time:an abundance of water.
With around 70% of Iraq’s surface water originating outside its borders,according to the Ministry of Water Resources, the country once again findsitself at the mercy of shifts beyond its control —this time not because ofscarcity alone, but because of a sudden influx moving downstream.
Reversing the Drain
“Iraq possesses irrigation systems capable of absorbing any volume ofwater arriving through the Euphrates without causing floods.”
This assessment from Turhan al-Mufti, adviser to the Iraqi primeminister on water affairs, reflects cautious confidence in Baghdad as theincoming wave approaches. He pointed to an extensive storage network thatincludes Lake Haditha, which still has considerable unused capacity, alongsideHabbaniyah and Razzaza, with additional diversion possible toward ThartharDepression and the southern marshes.
Calling it “a wet year, not a flood year,” al-Mufti portrayed Iraq’sability to cope in simple terms; “any quantity of water, regardless of howlarge.” The additional volumes, he added, could help revive marsh ecosystemsthat have endured years of decline.
The optimism follows a prolonged period of strain. During recent droughtyears, inflows from the Euphrates dropped by more than 50%, according to the Ministryof Water Resources, forcing major adjustments in farming practices and resourceplanning across the country.
Still, al-Mufti cautioned that climate change leaves little room forcomplacency and requires “a measured use” of available supplies.
River levels are only part of the challenge. Iraq’s population hassurpassed 46 million, according to 2024 World Bank data, placing ever-greaterdemands on already strained supplies. International estimates suggest thecountry may require more than $233 billion by 2040 to restore water andenvironmental infrastructure, while nearly 30% of agricultural land hasdisappeared over the past three decades.
In some provinces, agricultural activity has fallen by as much as 50%during severe dry spells, according to the Ministry of Agriculture —a reminderof how quickly changes in river flow can ripple through the wider economy.
As Iraq prepares to capture the incoming water, communities fartherupstream have already experienced its destructive side.
Euphrates flood wave approaches Iraq: Water lifeline or emerging threat?
Breaking Point Across
“The water flooded bridges and major facilities, forcing authorities tocarry out urgent evacuations using local warning systems.”
That was the reality in eastern Syria, where Ali al-Hamad of theMinistry of Local Administration and Environment described emergency operationsstretching across more than 200 kilometers of the Euphrates. Response teams, herecalled, faced “unprecedented challenges.”
Floodwaters swept through Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor before reaching Iraq,inundating farmland and disrupting daily life. Pumping stations stoppedoperating, while residents in several low-lying areas were forced from theirhomes.
Sixty water stations went out of service in the Shamiyah and Jaziraregions. Key crossings, including al-Mayadeen and al-Asharah bridges, sustained damage, and ferry traffic along the river came to a halt.
Syria’s Deputy Energy Minister Osama Abu Zeid linked the rise in waterlevels to a combination of snowmelt in the Turkish upstream basin and growingpressure on reservoirs that prompted the opening of dam spillways.
Warning that conditions “could lead to flash floods and dangerouserosion,” he urged residents to stay away from riverbanks, avoid swimming, andsuspend all activity near the water.
At the Euphrates Dam Institution, Haitham Bakour reported thatoperational teams remained on alert and maintained “operational readiness” toregulate releases and safeguard infrastructure.
Although the immediate danger phase was declared over, the damageremained evident. More than 5,000 dunams of farmland were flooded, affectingaround 2,400 families.
Counting the Drops
The same flow is now being monitored closely in Iraq, where specialistsare tracking both its volume and arrival time.
Water expert Tahseen al-Moussawi noted that releases from Syria “havenot exceeded 2,000 cubic meters per second,” attributing part of thedestruction in eastern Syria to “encroachments and fragile infrastructure leftbehind by years of war.”
The wave is expected to enter Iraq through al-Qaim before reachingHaditha Dam within four days. Described by al-Moussawi as “the first line ofdefense,” the facility can hold more than 10 billion cubic meters, whilecurrent reserves stand at roughly 2 billion.
Farther downstream lies an interconnected chain of storage facilitiesstretching across Habbaniyah, Razzaza, Tharthar, and the southern marshes—enough to accommodate billions of cubic meters. Yet despite that advantage,al-Moussawi argued that water administration continues to suffer from“significant waste and chronic poor planning.”
He estimated that Iraq requires around 20 billion cubic meters of water,while nearly 17 billion cubic meters are expected to arrive from Syria in thecoming days.
The developments upstream have also renewed scrutiny of Iraq’snegotiations with neighboring countries. Pointing to the rapid filling ofTurkish reservoirs, al-Moussawi argued that the situation “raises questionsabout the management of Iraq’s negotiating file,” urging renewed implementationof water-sharing arrangements.
Authorities are already focusing on storage. Bayez al-Zarari ofparliament’s Agriculture, Water and Marshlands Committee described the responseas being handled “in a scientific and carefully planned manner.”
Agricultural releases have been postponed until mid-June to maximizereserves, prioritizing retention over distribution. Monitoring efforts now relyheavily on satellite imagery and international tracking systems.
For al-Zarari, the influx represents a “narrow window, an opportunity tostrengthen water security if it is used properly.”
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The Great Reset
The Ministry of Water Resources has also sought to reassure the public. The country, it confirmed, “has the full technical capacity to absorb anyincrease in water releases,” while current indicators, it added, “do not callfor concern.”
The contrast with recent years is stark.
Iraq has just emerged from one of its harshest drought periods since1933. During that stretch, inflows fell to 27% of previous levels and reservesdropped to only 8% of total storage capacity, according to ministry figures.
Climate pressures have intensified that volatility. Average temperaturesin Iraq and northeastern Syria have risen by around 1–2°C since the mid-20thcentury, according to recent World Bank data, while rainfall has declined byroughly 18 millimeters per month in some areas.
Infrastructure damage from years of conflict has further reduced watersupply capacity by nearly 40%, forcing reliance on alternative and often lesssecure sources during periods of scarcity.
As releases from Syrian dams gradually subside, attention is turning toIraq’s ability to capture and distribute the incoming volumes across a networkstretching from Haditha to the southern marshes.
Specialists caution that the challenge lies not in the presence ofwater, but in its timing and distribution. Mismanagement, they warn, could turna regional surge into localized flooding rather than a national gain.
For now, the Euphrates is undergoing a rare reversal. After yearsdefined by drought, the river is carrying an unexpected surplus, leaving Iraqand Syria to adapt once again to conditions shaped by climate pressures anddecisions made upstream.
: Iraq’s water crisis: A structural rewrite of agricultural governance
Written and edited by Shafaq News staff.