Several pauses toward a potential peace agreement between the United States and Iran have taken place, even as intermittent flare-ups continue to erupt across the region. Yet any clear certainty about a durable peace still appears distant and deeply complicated. What is undeniable, however, is that the balance of physical power on the ground has changed dramatically. The Iran sitting at the negotiating table in Islamabad is no longer the Iran of previous years. After more than 13,000 strikes by the United States and Israel, Tehran’s defense-industrial capacity has suffered severe structural degradation. Available assessments suggest that more than two-thirds of Iran’s missile and drone production facilities have been destroyed. Most strikingly, Iran’s navy has effectively been wiped out, with […]