As the clock hands inch slowly and heavily toward noon tomorrow, Saturday—the deadline of the “presidential ultimatum” set by Syria’s transitional president Ahmad al-Sharaa for the integration of Kurdish al-Hasakah, in the footsteps of his friend Donald Trump, a believer in the doctrine of peace through force—Kurdish leader Masoud Barzani does not appear today as merely a political leader watching events from afar, nor as a simple diplomatic visitor to Rome. Rather, he stands as the sole “strategic reference” capable of reading between the lines of the scorched maps of Syria.
While his son, the powerful Prime Minister Masrour Barzani, was turning the corridors of the Davos Economic Forum into a platform for global political mobilization to secure an international umbrella for the Kurds, the “father-leader” was holding the threads of the complex game—drawing on the legacy of a strong man who knows how to wear the “suit” in palaces and when to return to the “jamdāna” and the Peshmerga’s weaponry on mountain peaks—gripping the “staff of balances” from the middle in a world that recognizes only those who follow its creed.
To grasp the weight Barzani represents at this decisive existential moment, one must move beyond the protocol image of a political leader and probe the formation of a “seasoned fighter” born under aerial bombardment, forged by decades of wars, and tempered by bloodshed and the loss of comrades.
Let no one be deceived by the man’s calm or long silence; behind this charisma lies a solid combat doctrine and a mindset of “revolutionary asceticism” recognized by foes before allies, according to those close to him.
Barzani—who has known the life of caves and trenches—is able, at moments of imminent danger, to leave behind all trappings of authority and comfort and return to the mountain, living for months and years on “a piece of bread, a tomato, a cup of tea, and perhaps a roll of tobacco,” enduring the harshest climatic and logistical conditions without his stature bending.
This ability to “zero out needs” and return to the roots of struggle is what gives his threats today a frightening weight and makes his pledges to protect the Kurds a “certified check” written in blood and history—not merely fleeting political maneuvers.
Today, as the strongholds of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) east of the Euphrates collapse like dominoes, any fair observer must recall the long-ignored “Barzani prophecy.” For years, Barzani offered strategic advice to Mazloum Abdi and his companions, warning them of the danger of “cutting off from the roots” and severing the umbilical cord with the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. He urged them to raise the Kurdistan flag as a unifying symbol to shield them in coming storms, instead of narrow ideological flags.
His most prominent and dangerous warning concerned the “quicksands” of Arab areas—tribes whose loyalties cannot be trusted in a volatile environment. Events have proven the accuracy of his “sociological” vision with chilling precision: the same Arab tribes that once applauded Bashar al-Assad, then pledged allegiance to ISIS, and later fell under the SDF banner, are the very ones that flipped within just 48 hours, handing over their cities and regions to the forces of Syria’s new president Ahmad al-Sharaa without a single shot—leaving the Kurdish project in Syria exposed before the storm of “integration by force.”
Recalling his earlier advice, Barzani says: “I previously told Mazloum Abdi and others: these Arab areas will create a problem for you—find a remedy.” They did not listen, and the result is what we see today.
Amid this collapse, the repeated chapters of “American betrayal” are laid bare. Barzani recounts a surreal scene that sums up the situation: “The U.S. envoy Tom Barrack called and said he wanted to come to Erbil for a meeting, and with him was SDF commander Abdi. While we were in the meeting, messages kept arriving informing us of the outbreak of fighting and the fall of areas.”
This dramatic scene did not surprise Barzani, who practices “political realism” at its highest level and never put all his eggs in the perforated American basket. Instead, he skillfully balanced his strategic relations with the West while opening equal, direct channels of communication with his regional surroundings—his visit to Rome being proof of that.
As the countdown to al-Sharaa’s deadline began, Barzani managed a complex diplomatic movement akin to “walking through a minefield.” The Kurdish leader reveals that from the very first moment the Aleppo battles erupted, he sent an urgent message to President Ahmad al-Sharaa via a shared “Arab friend,” containing a clear security equation: “Political confrontations between two parties (the SDF and the Syrian army) can be contained, but any assault on the Kurds and their areas is categorically unacceptable and carries consequences that must be heeded.”
This firm message did not stop with the intermediary; it evolved into a direct phone call at al-Sharaa’s own request, in which the latter confirmed that harming the Kurds was “impossible and will not happen.”
These guarantees extracted by Barzani did not come out of nowhere, but from the new Damascus’s realization that “Barzani” holds the keys to peace and war in the Kurdish equation—and that he is a man who keeps his word.
Masoud Barzani’s philosophy of power becomes clear at this historical juncture: while he always affirms, “I was never for war and seek peaceful solutions,” he draws red lines in blood, not ink.
Discussing the crisis, Barzani deftly invoked the “Kobani 2014” scenario as a military precedent, stating in unmistakable terms: “Had I had an opportunity like the one granted in 2014, I would have sent an immediate force to defend Kobani and its Kurds.”
This signal is not nostalgia for the past, but a deterrent message to the future: the Kurdistan Region possesses “Peshmerga forces” and an inherent power that makes any thought of aggression against it or its national depth an act of madness. The equation changes fundamentally “when matters reach hostility toward the Kurds and their eradication”; then “we are all one hand, ready to do anything.”
On the other side, Paris follows the repercussions of this collapse with deep concern, as President Macron tries to play the role of mediator, shocked by American unilateralism and withdrawal decisions. Yet Paris now realizes that the “keys to solution and de-escalation” are no longer in chaotic Washington, but in Erbil.
As the deadline approaches its end at Saturday noon and the new Syrian army prepares to move, the Kurdistan Region under Barzani remains the “only lung” and strategic depth through which Syria’s Kurds breathe. “Kurdistan has never held back,” reality says: it opened its borders to the displaced, rushed aid, and provided political cover—despite the bitterness of ignored prior advice.
In sum, as the clock nears zero hour, the current scene is not merely a military loss for one faction or a gain for another, but a profound lesson in the “jurisprudence of survival” delivered by Barzani to the Middle East: that a “rented rifle” may win a battle but does not build a homeland, and that betting on the “American rear” is a bet on a mirage.
Today, as others sink into the sands of shifting alliances, the “General of the Mountain” stands firm to affirm a wisdom that will be written in gold in the annals of history: true leadership is not that which courageously leads its people to suicide, but that which has the courage to save them with wisdom—affirming to the world that whoever leans on his mountains, his people, and his strategic depth is not broken by the betrayal of strangers, and that whoever holds the right “compass” is never harmed by the burning of maps around him. What befalls the Kurds of Iraq befalls the Kurds of Syria, and vice versa.
An external observer may legitimately wonder about the nature of the relationship that grants an “Iraqi” leader like Barzani the right to intervene in “Syrian” affairs. The answer lies in the depth of the political doctrine the man represents: this good man does not act merely as the head of a party or an administrative region, but as a transboundary “national reference” and heir to the historical leadership of Mullah Mustafa Barzani, which enjoys a special sanctity among Kurds in the four parts.
For Erbil and Kurds at large, the regions of “Rojava” (northeastern Syria) are not merely a geographic neighborhood, but the “strategic and human depth” that cannot be relinquished. Moreover, Barzani is the official patron and supporter of the Kurdish National Council (ENKS), the parallel political representative in Syria, and the one who trained and armed the “Roj Peshmerga,” who were barred from returning by an SDF decision. Thus, Barzani’s moves proceed from the principle that political borders drawn by international maps may separate administration, but they do not absolve the “reference” of his moral and historical responsibility to protect “Kurdish blood” wherever it may be—especially when Erbil is the only lung, economic artery, and sole border outlet connecting Syria’s Kurds to the outside world.