Following the takeover of the Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafieh neighborhoods in northern Aleppo by Syrian Internal Security Forces and the subsequent withdrawal of SDF forces to northeast Syria, the Syrian government is expected to capitalize on this moment of victory, alongside international acceptance from the U.S. and Israel and Turkish support, to complete the mission of dismantling the remaining Kurdish Autonomous Administration areas in Syria.
This indicates that the conflict is far from over; it is likely to reignite soon. However, the next phase will certainly be more fierce and intense. It will not be as swift as the battle for northern Aleppo, especially as Mazloum Abdi has realized the necessity of deploying battle-hardened PKK fighters from Qandil for the upcoming confrontation. Furthermore, reliance on Arab tribes allied with the SDF in the next stage against Damascus and its allies is no longer a viable bet.
Turkey has played a decisive role in shaping Damascus's military decision-making regarding the SDF and will continue to incentivize, provide logistical support, and offer tactical or even direct military assistance if necessary to complete the mission in the Upper Euphrates regions. For its part, the International Coalition forces have carried out significant preemptive operations targeting ISIS hideouts deep within Syria to prevent any security vacuum that the organization might exploit, particularly during the anticipated clashes in SDF-controlled areas that house ISIS prisoners and leadership.
Meanwhile, Iraq—unusually—played a vital and decisive role in brokering a ceasefire and establishing a temporary settlement between the SDF and Damascus. In general, any shift in the battlefield between Syrian forces and the SDF toward Al-Hasakah and Deir ez-Zor will undoubtedly cast a shadow over Iraq’s security situation. However, it is well-known that our heroic Iraqi security forces and military sectors, in all their formations, are conducting exceptional assessments of the evolving situation deep inside Syria. Therefore, there are no significant fears as long as we maintain an advanced level of security and military precaution.
Ultimately, what can be confirmed is that the battle will soon migrate to eastern Syria and the Upper Euphrates, near the Iraqi border, encompassing areas such as Al-Hol camp and Ghwayran prison.