Shafaq NewsWithin days, US foreign policy has shifted from issuingwarnings to applying force through unconventional means, as the world watchesdevelopments in Venezuela with growing concern. Analysts interviewed by Shafaq News view the moves not as anisolated episode in Latin America, but as a potential prototype for howPresident Donald Trump’s administration may act in other regions, particularlythe Middle East.Trump’s repeated assertion that “the world is changing” nowappears less rhetorical and more declarative, signaling what observers describeas the erosion of the post–
World War II international order.That shift was underscored by a recent executive decision towithdraw the United States from 66 international organizations, which theadministration characterized as bureaucratic and hostile to US interests. Oneday later, Trump told The New York Times that restraint on his actions comesfrom personal moral judgment and rational calculation rather than adherence tointernational law.: Early 2026 global tensions raise fears of a newphase of proxy conflictVenezuela and Iran in the SpotlightAs major capitals assess the maritime blockade measures andoil seizures imposed on Venezuela, attention has increasingly turned to theMiddle East, and specifically Iran.For the third time since protests erupted in Iran —initiallydriven by economic grievances before evolving into political demands— Trump haswarned Tehran that Washington would intervene forcefully if protesters arekilled.In discussions with Shafaq News, three prominentWashington-based experts outlined competing interpretations of this emergingglobal order.Thomas Warrick, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council andformer US deputy assistant secretary of homeland security for counterterrorismpolicy, rejected the notion of a direct replication between Venezuela and Iran.He explained that each file is handled by separate teams within theadministration, with Venezuela falling under Western Hemisphere policy and Irantied to nuclear and regional security concerns.:Iran’s protests between economic crisis and political contestationStill, Warrick cautioned that this distinction does nottranslate into safety for Tehran. He noted that Trump, who holds broadauthority over the US military, may bypass options such as naval blockades infavor of more severe measures if Iranian protesters face violent repression.“One option under consideration could involve launchingTomahawk cruise missiles against Revolutionary Guard bases,” Warrick said,adding that despite the absence of a US aircraft carrier in the Gulf, navalvessels capable of carrying out such strikes remain deployed.He also referenced the 2020 killing of Iran’s Quds ForcesLeader Qassem Soleimani in an airstrike near
Baghdad International Airport asevidence of Trump’s preference for unexpected choices from the Pentagon’s menuof options.Logistical Constraints and Legal ArgumentsPatrick Clawson, research director at The WashingtonInstitute for Near East Policy, assessed the situation from a logisticalstandpoint. He suggested that the US Navy may be overstretched, arguing thatintercepting Iranian vessels would be far more complex than targetingVenezuelan shipping.However, Clawson maintained that legal justification for actionagainst Iran already exists. He pointed to Tehran’s use of ships operatingunder false flags in violation of international regulations, arguing that suchpractices could render those vessels legitimate targets should Washingtondecide to overcome logistical hurdles.Divisions Over International LawTrump’s dismissal of international legal frameworks has deepened divisions among analysts.Radwan Ziadeh, a researcher at the Arab Center, Washington, DC, warned that the United States risks shifting from a guarantor of international law to an obstacle to it. He cautioned that sidelining global norms could embolden Russia in Ukraine and China in Taiwan by effectively permitting them to violate sovereignty.Clawson countered that view with sharp realism, noting, “breaches of international law long predate Trump.”For Shafaq News, Mostafa Hashem, Washington, DC.