Trump's cold shoulder to Reza Pahlavi sparks speculation of US 'Venezuela model' in Iran
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Sean Mathews
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Fri, 01/09/2026 - 19:01
Trump said he will not meet with the son of Iran's late shah, who is arguably the most public opposition leader to the Islamic Republic
Iranian opposition leader Reza Pahlavi and son of the last shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, holds a press conference in Paris, on 23 June 2025 (Joel Sagat/AFP)
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US President Donald Trump's refusal to meet with Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran's last shah, has sparked speculation that the US leader is signalling he could cut a deal with the Islamic Republic's elite, as he did in Venezuela, amid massive protests that began nearly two weeks ago.
Trump demurred on Thursday when podcast host Hugh Hewitt asked if he would meet the 65-year-old son of Iran’s late shah.
“I’ve watched him, and he seems like a nice person,” Trump said. “But I’m not sure that it would be appropriate at this point to do that as president.”
“I think that we should let everybody go out there, and we’ll see who emerges. I’m not sure necessarily that I, that it would be an appropriate thing to do,” he added.
"He is sending a message to power centres in Tehran," Randa Slim, the director of the Stimson Center's Middle East programme, wrote on X.
"Look at Venezuela. Get rid of Khamenei. I am ready for a deal," Slim said, referring to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Following the release of Trump's interview, Pahlavi on Friday morning called on Trump to “intervene” in the protests in Iran.
“Mr President, this is an urgent and immediate call for your attention, support, and action. Last night you saw the millions of brave Iranians in the streets facing down live bullets. Today, they are facing not just bullets but a total communications blackout. No Internet. No landlines,” Pahlavi wrote on X on Friday.
“You have proven and I know you are a man of peace and a man of your word. Please be prepared to intervene,” he added.
Venezuela strategy speculation
But Ali Alfoneh, an expert on Iran at the Arab Gulf States Institute, was another analyst who said Venezuela could provide a roadmap for any Iranian government insiders looking to deal with the US.
“[Iran’s] de facto collective leadership may pursue a ‘Venezuelan’ survival strategy: get rid of [supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei], reaching out to Trump, seeking sanctions relief, inviting US oil companies back into Iran, stabilizing the economy, and preserving the system,” he wrote on X.
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Such analysis has grown following the US's recent attack on Venezuela.
US intelligence agencies reportedly told Trump and his inner circle, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, that Venezuela’s opposition abroad did not have the local support to govern the country, and their best bet was leaning on Delcy Rodriguez, Maduro’s vice president, to keep order and get oil flowing.
Reza Pahlavi has a following among some members of Iran’s diaspora who are oppose the Islamic Republic, but he has not set foot in his country since his father’s ousting in 1979.
His call for Iranians to overthrow the government during Israel and the US's attack in June went largely unheeded.
'I don't need international law'
The US attack on Venezuela has sparked concerns from Greenland to Mexico about an increased US willingness to deploy force on the White House’s whim. Trump has appeared to bask in the uncertainty that his Venezuela attack has created.
“I don’t need international law,” he told The New York Times this week, saying his ability to deploy force is limited only by his “own morality”. Under the US Constitution, only Congress has the power to declare war.
But Israeli news outlets and some US politicians, such as Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, have signalled that following the US attack on Venezuela and abduction of President Nicolas Maduro, Iran could be next on Trump’s list of interventions.
That messaging has resonated as Iran is convulsed by protests.
Demonstrations have been taking place across Iran for 13 days now, spreading across 111 cities, in 31 provinces, according to local reports.
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Videos shared on social media show thousands of Iranians taking to the streets and government buildings set ablaze in the biggest act of defiance against the government in years. The protesters have been met with live fire by security forces.
Rights groups have documented dozens of protester deaths during the Iran protests, with estimates ranging from around 25 to 42, including minors. Thousands are reported to have been detained.
"If Iran shoots and violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue. We are locked and loaded and ready to go. Thank you for your attention to this matter!" Trump wrote on his TruthSocial platform last week.
The demonstrations on Thursday appeared to be the biggest since 2022, after the death in police custody of Mahsa Amini, a woman who was arrested for allegedly violating the Islamic Republic's hijab law.
This time, Iranians have mobilised out of anger over the cost-of-living crisis and spiralling inflation.
Iran’s currency, the rial, was already in free-fall before the US and Israel attacked the country in June 2025, but it has since lost an additional 40 percent of its value against the dollar.
Iran’s Islamic Republic came to power in 1979 following the removal of the US-backed Shah. Over the last three decades, it has faced devastating US sanctions. The Trump administration has imposed a “maximum pressure” campaign on Tehran, designed to hobble its most lucrative export, oil.
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